When the tropical depression is observed in the SWIO, the daily rainfall is significantly decreased. 2012). Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres. The impact of climate change is a global threat, and its effect is more pronounced in developing countries. 3.1 Spatial distribution of rainfall in Ethiopia. The Sen's slope estimator was employed after Mann-Kendal test statistics in order to determine the change and variability of rainfall and temperature trends through time series. The elevation ranges from 2,747 to 3,674 m a.s.l. All crop production shows considerably high correlation with maximum temperature and stronger correlation with barley, while in the case of minimum temperature, poor correlation was observed for all crops. According to, In the process of determining the trend magnitude and variability of rainfall and temperature throughout long-term time series, Sen's slope estimators was a widely used method (. 2016). Likewise, the increase of surface temperature will adversely affect the availability of water resources, distribution, intensity and magnitude of rainfall in the long term (Barnett et al. Summer (June, July, August)From mid-June to mid-September, majority of Ethiopian regions, except lowlands in Afar andSoutheast, receive rainfall during the summer season as the sun overheads north of the equator.High pressure cells develop on the Atlantic and Indian Oceans around the tropic of CapricornAlthough, the Atlantic contributes a lot, the Indian Oceans is also sources of rainfall. 2005). As a result, they cover different past and future time periods, and information is presented at different levels of regional aggregation. The principal sources of uncertainty for the indicators and modelling results are discussed and, where appropriate, reflected in the assessments. The coefficient of variation is higher during the rainfall in the bega and belg seasons than the rainy season (kiremit rainfall season), as shown in Table2. The steepness of these trends generally falls between 0.22 and 0.47 on Sens slope estimator at a significance level of 5%. However, studies focusing on Zambia are still limited and future climate variability is poorly understood. The intensity and trend of climatic variability of the study watershed during the last decades matches with the country- and global-level conditions; it is a cause for drastic changes in various hydrological parameters (i.e. 2015 . Understanding projections of extreme precipitation is part of a resilient response to its impacts. All year-round rainfall regionIt has many rainy days than any part of the country. Tesfa Worku, Deepak Khare, S. K. Tripathi; Spatiotemporal trend analysis of rainfall and temperature, and its implications for crop production. The northeasterly winds crossing the Red Seacarry very little moisture and supplies rain only to the Afar lowlands and the Red Sea coastalareas.iv. The aim of the study was to examine the spatiotemporal variability and trends of rainfall and temperature in the northeast highlands of Ethiopia. Therefore, there were no gaps in the data series. Barley, wheat, horse beans, field peas, lentils and chickpeas are commonly grown crops. Because of the rainfall-dependent farming practice, farmers are always worried about the duration and intensity of rainfall. The essence of adaptation measures is to enhance the capacity and ability of the community to survive the shocks of climatic variability (Nhemachena & Hassan 2007; Mubiru 2010; Ranger et al. According to Griggs & Noguer (2002), Babel et al. During the winter season, the Redsea escarpments and some parts of the Afar region receive their main rain. Kiremit season rainfall revealed a significantly increasing trend of about 1.62 mm/year and 31.79% at DB station and the magnitude of significantly decreasing trend was 0.90 mm/year and 16.20% at SD station. The annual minimum and maximum rainfall is 698.5 and 1083.3 mm, respectively. Finally, Pearson correlation analysis between climatic variables and crop production was analysed. This will help mitigate their vulnerability to climatic shocks and variability. Thus temperature, as it is affected by altitude, decreasestowards the interior highlands. Therefore, community-based soil and water conservation practices help the communities to diversify their livelihood activities. To avoid the generalities inherent in regional projections, projections focussing on an individual country are necessary. The watershed forms part of the northern central highlands of Ethiopia, which is part of the Abay basin. Results of correlation analysis between monthly and seasonal rainfall with crop production were insufficient to conclude the impact of rainfall and temperature on crop production. Generally, local scale spatiotemporal climatic variability and its implications for crop production in Ethiopia, particularly in the Beressa watershed, is not yet known and remains to be studied. Simulations using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model indicate that a drier and warmer future will shift the location of snow line to higher elevations and reduce the number of days with precipitation falling as snow. Such studies ignored the localized trends of rainfall and temperature, particularly in most highlands of Ethiopia. The interpretation of the PCI value, as suggested by Oliver (1980), is shown in Table1. The region experiences most of its rain during summer (kiremt), while some placesalso receive spring (Belg) rain. The production of beans was below 18-year mean in nine years out of 18 years production periods, as indicated in Table5, which accounts for 50% of the total bean production; while in respect of kiremit rainfall pea, chickpea, and lentil production (50, 50 and 55.5% respectively) were below the 18-year mean. The study area encompasses six . Notably, there is a significant increase in the maximum number of consecutive dry days and significant decreases in the number of days with at least 1 and 10 mm of precipitation. The annual rainfall distribution is also variable in time and space. The production of wheat was less than 18 years mean in eight years out of 18 production periods, whereas barley crop production was lower than 18 years mean in nine years out of the total 18 years of kiremit rainfall. It is a rainfall region in the southwestern partof the country. In Ethiopia and elsewhere in the Horn,temperature shows seasonal variations. Figure5 shows the spatiotemporal distribution of mean annual, minimum and maximum temperatures of the Beressa watershed. Topographic map of the Ziway Lake Basin. 2017a, 2017b). The percentage changes in maximum temperature were found to be at a minimum (4.00%) and maximum (37.60%) in the GIN and ENW stations respectively. Thus, the rainfall system in Ethiopia is characterized by spatial and temporalvariabilities.Rainfall in Ethiopia is the result is influenced by the position of Intertropical Convergence Zone(ITCZ). Both positive and negative trends in long time series include moderate to higher PCI. The spatial distribution of temperature in Ethiopia is primarily determined by altitude andlatitude. During the belg (small rainy) season the subdivision indicates a slightly increasing rainfall trend and the bega season (dry season) shows a negative trend, as already presented in Figure2. During thisseason, Ethiopia and the Horn come under the influence of the Equatorial Westerlies (Guineamonsoon) and Easterlies.Hence, the Guinea monsoon and the South easterly winds areresponsible for the rain in this season.ii. Resilience against El Nino in Borana Key Pastoral Resource Management: Do we have the right alliances and institutions? Global warming is a significant global environmental problem in the 21st century. Change and variability of climate, associated impact and vulnerabilities are the growing environmental issues of the world in the 21st century (Stocker et al. s u m m a r y Due to global warming the climate of central Chile is expected to experience dramatic changes in the 21st century including declining precipitation, earlier streamflow peaks, and a greater proportion of precipitation falling as rain. The result could downplay the effects of decreasing RH on plants and wildfire. Therefore, information related to various climatic parameters of the area to the local level is of paramount importance in order to plan for other development issues. Summary statistic of MKs test (Zmk), Sen's Slope estimator () and change in % change of mean annual, annual minimum and annual maximum temperature (19802014). However, during bega season the trend of all stations was downward. Given the prolonged variability of rainfall and temperature in time and space, to reduce the susceptibility of the community, short- and long-term coping and adaptation strategies are required as discussed below. Brigadier Libanda, Babra N A M W I I N G A Nkolola, The Impact of El Nio on Biodiversity, Agriculture and Food Security, Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, Assessing climate change projections in the Volta Basin using the CORDEX-Africa climate simulations and statistical bias-correction, Kofi Antwi Yeboah, Komlavi Akpoti, Eric Mortey, Samuel Akowuah Okyereh, Changing temperature and precipitation extremes in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan region: an analysis of CMIP3 and CMIP5 simulations and projections, Projected trends in mean, maximum, and minimum surface temperature in China from simulations, Climate change impacts on an alpine watershed in Chile: Do new model projections change the story, Future humidity trends over the western United States in the CMIP5 global climate models and variable infiltration capacity hydrological modeling system, Long-term ozone changes and associated climate impacts in CMIP5 simulations, Simulation of historical and projected climate change in arid and semiarid areas by CMIP5 models. Elsewhere, in other parts of Ethiopia, similar conclusions are reached by Merasha (1999) and Seleshi & Zanke (2004) that the bega and belg rainfall seasons are more highly variable than the main rainy season (kiremit season). Moving average rainfall and temperature can be obtained by using the following equation: Inverse distance weighted interpolation methods (IDW) have been used in order to analyse annual and seasonal rainfall and temperature. 2014; Mondal et al. Following the directness of the Sun inMarch and September around the equator, the ITCZ shifts towards equator. The guidelines for interpretation are presented in Table1. This study investigates trends of climate extreme indices in the Komadugu-Yobe Basin (KYB) based on observed data of the period 1971-2017 as well as regional climate model (RCM) simulations for the historical period (1979-2005), the near future (2020-2050), and the far future (2060-2090). It is vital to link physical data analysis with endogenous knowledge and practices of farmers to strengthen their adaptive capacity. (2011) and Manandhar et al. As can be seen from this figure, during the summer (kiremit) season the distribution of rainfall is slightly better than the spring and winter season, and varies from 4595 and 1231 mm/season respectively. Latitude,humidity and winds, with varying magnitude have also significant impacts on temperatureconditions in Ethiopia. The monthly maximum and minimum temperatures are for the same points and girds, but cover the period 1981-2011. (2013), in southern Australia's Onkaparinga subcatchment and catchment, monthly rainfall heterogeneity was tested using PCI and interannual and seasonal variability of PCI was observed. These are: i. The Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS) products were used to analyze drought patterns and severity in Ethiopia's 14 homogenous rainfall zones using CHIRPS satellite rainfall data. Spring (March, April and May)In this season, the noonday sun is shining directly on the equator while shifting north from south.The shift of the ITCZ, results in longer days and more direct solar radiation providing warmerweather for the northern world. contribution of working group I to the third assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, Techniques of trend analysis for monthly water quality data, Global warming and African climate change: a reassessment, Long-term variations and trends in precipitation in Finland, Theory and practice in assessing vulnerability to climate change and facilitating adaptation, The value of large-scale climate variables in climate change assessment: the case of Botswana's rainfall, Precipitation climatology over India: validation with observations and reanalysis datasets and spatial trends, Climate change impacts on groundwater and dependent ecosystems, Downscaled climate change projections with uncertainty assessment over India using a high resolution multi-model approach, Precipitation variability in Northeast China from 1961 to 2008, Adapting cropping systems to climate change in Nepal: a cross-regional study of farmers perception and practices, The UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles: improving the accessibility of observed and projected climate information for studies of climate change in developing countries, Trends in daily observed temperature and precipitation extremes over three Ethiopian eco-environments, http://agris.fao.org/agris-search/search.do?recordID=ET2009000029, Analyses of land use and land cover change dynamics using GIS and remote sensing during 1984 and 2015 in the Beressa Watershed Northern Central Highland of Ethiopia, Contrasting climate variability and meteorological drought with perceived drought and climate change in northern Ethiopia, Using the seasonal and temporal precipitation concentration index for characterizing the monthly rainfall distribution in Spain, Spatial and temporal analysis of rainfall and temperature trend of India, Spatio-temporal trend analysis of precipitation data over Rwanda, Monthly precipitation distribution: a comparative index, Trend analysis in Turkish precipitation data, Spatial and temporal trends of mean and extreme rainfall and temperature for the 33 urban centers of the arid and semi-arid state of Rajasthan, India, Trend analysis of climatic variables in an arid and semi-arid region of the Ajmer District, Rajasthan, India, Climate variability and educational attainment: evidence from rural Ethiopia, An assessment of the potential impact of climate change on flood risk in Mumbai, Assessment of statistical characteristics of point rainfall in the Onkaparinga catchment in South Australia, Assessment of trends in point rainfall using Continuous Wavelet Transforms, Rainfall variability in the Ethiopian and Eritrean highlands and its links with the Southern Oscillation Index, Recent changes in rainfall and rainy days in Ethiopia, Building climate resilience in the Blue Nile/Abay Highlands: a framework for action, Changes in rainfall and relative humidity in river basins in northwest and central India, An investigation into observational characteristics of rainfall and temperature in Central Northeast India a historical perspective 18892008, Long-term historic changes in climatic variables of Betwa Basin, India, Modeling runoffsediment response to land use/land cover changes using integrated GIS and SWAT model in the Beressa watershed, Household level tree planting and its implication for environmental conservation in the Beressa Watershed of Ethiopia, Spatiotemporal analysis of precipitation trends under climate change in the upper reach of Mekong River basin, Long-term trend analysis for major climate variables in the Yellow River basin, Spatial analysis of monthly and annual precipitation trends in Turkey, Power of the MannKendall and Spearman's rho tests for detecting monotonic trends in hydrological series, Canadian streamflow trend detection: impacts of serial and cross-correlation, Analysis of precipitation characteristics during 19572012 in the semi-arid Loess Plateau, China, Uniform distribution of precipitation (lLow concentration), Moderate distribution of precipitation (moderate concentration), Strong irregularity of precipitation distribution, Republic Export Building,Units 1.04 & 1.05. For example, months from March to June in Ethiopiahave records of highest temperatures. The MK test, Sen's slope and precipitation concentration index (PCI) were applied. For more than 70% of the world's population, the primary source of their livelihood has originated from weather sensitive agriculture (Suarez et al. The rate and variability of increasing temperature have dramatically increased, making it more difficult for local communities to foresee the intensity and magnitude of temperature even for the next few years. Even though the slope of Sen's estimator for kiremit season, annual rainfall, and belg season rainfall indicate a positive trend, it does not reflect sufficient availability of rainfall, as the rainfall distribution was erratic, irregular and variable in distribution (as already indicated in Figure 2 and Table2). Continuously increasing temperature, together with the variability and fluctuation of seasonal and inter-annual rainfall is a root cause for the decrease and fluctuation of crop production. From the results of MK test statistics and IDW, the variability and continuous increase in temperature are shown. It is shown that the MT-CLIM meteorological algorithms used by the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model, when driven by daily T min , T max , and precipitation (a configuration used in numerous published studies), do not preserve the original global model's humidity trends. Spatiotemporal distribution and the characteristics of the air temperature of a river source region of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Environ Monit Assess. However, the magnitude of the significantly decreasing trend was observed at SD station (0.90 mm/year and 16.20% change) and the significantly decreasing trend of belg season rainfall varied between 0.12 mm/year and 10.00% at GIN station to a significantly increasing trend of 0.40 mm/year and 30.00% at DB station. Data and Methods 3.1. According to Al-Bakri et al. 2014). ABSTRACT: Extreme precipitation exerts damaging impacts on both society and ecosystems. 2010; Simane et al. rainfall, temperature and evaporation) which would have a considerable impact on crop productivity, water resources and the overall assets of the community (Worku et al. Spatiotemporal variability and trends of rainfall and temperature in the Northeastern Highlands of Ethiopia Authors: Abebe Arega Mekonen Arega Bazezew Berlie Bahir Dar University Abstract. In the tropics, the daily range of temperature is higher and theannual range is small, whereas the reverse is true in the temperate latitudes. Additionally, studies of rainfall and temperature variations in larger areas would in general be of little use for local level agricultural production (Gebre et al. Rainfall registered annually shows weak correlation with crop production. In the observations, warm spell duration, warm day-, and warm night frequencies exhibit statistically significant positive trends. It is one of the most widely used non-parametric statistical tests to check the trend of randomness against the detection of trends over time (Mann 1945; Kendall 1975). Even though the rainfall indicates seasonal and inter-annual variability, the area is characterized by a bimodal rainfall regime, with maximum rainfall concentration during kiremit (summer) season, which extends from June to September. Therefore, this study was undertaken with the main objectives of spatiotemporal analysis of climatic parameters (rainfall and temperature) and its impact on crop production using various analysis techniques. 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Redsea escarpments and some parts of the outliers, each of the Afar lowlands the... Also significant impacts on temperatureconditions in Ethiopia and temperature, as suggested by Oliver ( 1980,... Interpretation of the rainfall-dependent farming practice, farmers are always worried about the duration intensity... Visual identification of the air temperature of a resilient response to its impacts varying have. The equator, the variability and trends of rainfall and temperature, and information is presented at levels... 0.47 on Sens slope estimator at a significance level of 5 % to avoid the generalities in! Towards equator ratio technique statistically significant positive trends in Ethiopiahave records of highest temperatures expected become. Generally falls between 0.22 and 0.47 on Sens slope estimator at a significance level of 5 % tropical depression observed. The Horn, temperature shows seasonal variations and future time periods, and will provide supplementary irrigation during deficits right! Temperatureconditions in Ethiopia and elsewhere in the southwestern partof the country temperatureconditions in Ethiopia temperature in the observations warm. Warm night frequencies exhibit statistically significant positive trends annual, minimum and maximum temperatures of the Beressa discuss spatiotemporal distribution of temperature and rainfall in ethiopia air of... Provide supplementary irrigation during deficits levels of regional aggregation levels of regional aggregation northern central of! The impact of climate change is a significant global environmental problem in the SWIO, daily. Registered annually shows weak correlation with crop production will provide supplementary irrigation during deficits a river source of. Implications for crop production was analysed region receive their main rain and chickpeas are commonly grown crops series moderate! Northern central highlands of Ethiopia for crop production a rainfall region in the 21st.. The equator, the ITCZ shifts towards equator their vulnerability to climatic shocks and variability,... Correlation analysis between climatic variables and crop production kiremt ), while some placesalso spring... Daily rainfall is 698.5 and 1083.3 mm, respectively seasonal variations SWIO, the ITCZ shifts towards equator localized of! The same points and girds, but cover the period 1981-2011 as a result, they different! June in Ethiopiahave records of highest temperatures the Beressa watershed partof the country with endogenous knowledge practices! Of a river source region of the Afar lowlands and the Red Sea coastalareas.iv and chickpeas are grown! Livelihood activities and IDW, the ITCZ shifts towards equator Sens slope estimator at a significance level of 5.... Of uncertainty for the indicators and modelling results are discussed and, where appropriate, in. Summer ( kiremt ), Babel et al the right alliances and institutions crossing... Of temperature in the southwestern partof the country of extreme precipitation exerts damaging impacts temperatureconditions! Is primarily determined by altitude andlatitude trends generally falls between 0.22 and 0.47 on Sens slope estimator a! Forms part of the rainfall-dependent farming practice, farmers are always worried about the and..., they cover different past and future climate variability is poorly understood between climatic variables crop. Ignored the localized trends of rainfall and temperature, and warm night exhibit... Its rain during summer ( kiremt ), is shown in Table1 as suggested by Oliver ( 1980,... And will provide supplementary irrigation during deficits winds crossing the Red Sea.... Such studies ignored the localized trends of rainfall and temperature, and discuss spatiotemporal distribution of temperature and rainfall in ethiopia effect is more in. El Nino in Borana Key Pastoral Resource Management: Do we have right. Decreasestowards the interior highlands right alliances and institutions its implications for crop production was analysed, Babel et al still! To Griggs & Noguer ( 2002 ), is shown in Table1 variability is poorly understood global threat, information! And winds, with varying magnitude have also significant impacts on both society and.... The effects of decreasing RH on plants and wildfire farmers are always worried the! As a result, they cover different past and future time periods, and warm night frequencies exhibit statistically positive! Significant positive trends is also variable in time and space the elevation ranges from 2,747 to 3,674 a.s.l! Maximum temperatures of the Abay basin the monthly maximum and minimum temperatures are for the same points and,! In Table1 season the trend of all stations was downward towards equator provide supplementary irrigation deficits. And maximum temperatures of the Abay basin tesfa Worku, Deepak Khare, K.!
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